Will there be 1+ holes-in-one at the 2026 Zurich Classic of New Orleans
Leader sits at 41% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 12%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
1+ holes-in-one
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
12¢
2+ holes-in-one
Spread
29pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
May 28, 2026
19 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will there
Will there be 2+ holes-in-one at the 2026 Truist Championship?: 2+ holes-in-one
KXPGAHOLEINONE-TRC26-2
Will there be 1+ holes-in-one at the 2026 PGA Championship?: 1+ holes-in-one
KXPGAHOLEINONE-PGC26-1
Will there be 3+ holes-in-one at the 2026 Truist Championship?: 3+ holes-in-one
KXPGAHOLEINONE-TRC26-3
Will there be 3+ holes-in-one at the 2026 PGA Championship?: 3+ holes-in-one
KXPGAHOLEINONE-PGC26-3
Will there be 2+ holes-in-one at the 2026 PGA Championship?: 2+ holes-in-one
KXPGAHOLEINONE-PGC26-2
Analysis
This contract resolves to YES if at least one hole-in-one occurs during the 2026 Zurich Classic of New Orleans tournament. The 40% probability reflects moderate uncertainty about whether this rare event will happen over the course of the event. Holes-in-one depend on player skill, course difficulty, pin placement, and field size. The tournament typically features two-player teams competing over four rounds, which affects the probability—more players and more shots increases the likelihood of at least one ace occurring. The key catalyst is the tournament itself, scheduled for late April or May 2026, when all shots will be recorded and the event will either produce one or more holes-in-one or resolve as a non-occurrence. Historical frequency of aces in PGA events and the specific course setup at the Zurich Classic will ultimately determine the outcome.
- ›Tournament field size and number of competitive rounds affect cumulative probability—larger fields with more shots increase likelihood of at least one ace
- ›Course layout and par-3 difficulty determine which holes are ace-capable and how challenging they are relative to typical PGA venues
- ›Historical hole-in-one frequency at the Zurich Classic's host course provides baseline expectations for ace occurrence rates
- ›Weather conditions during tournament dates influence ball flight and green difficulty, potentially affecting ace probability
- ›Pin placements and green positioning during competition weeks are unknown variables that affect shot difficulty on par-3 holes
What moved the line
- May 31+ holes-in-one↓4pp45→41¢ · Kalshi
- May 32+ holes-in-one↑4pp8→12¢ · Kalshi
- May 21+ holes-in-one↑3pp42→45¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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