Will Cameron Young lead at the end of Round 2 in the PGA Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
4%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$41K
1 contracts
Closes
May 24, 2026
15 days
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Luke Clanton lead at the end of Round 2 in the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic
Analysis
This probability estimates an 11% chance that Cameron Young will hold the lead after 36 holes of the 2026 PGA Championship. Young's relatively low odds reflect both the competitive field in major championships and the difficulty of maintaining a lead over two rounds. The main factors affecting this probability are Young's recent form and consistency at major tournaments, as well as how the specific course setup and weather conditions at the championship venue might favor or disadvantage his playing style. The probability will become clearer once the PGA Championship begins and Round 2 concludes, at which point the market will resolve based on the actual leaderboard. Meanwhile, betting volume and odds movements may shift based on any pre-tournament news regarding Young's preparation or health status.
- ›Cameron Young's historical performance in major championships, particularly his recent results and major tournament finishes
- ›The field strength and number of competitors realistically positioned to lead after two rounds, which affects the relative probability of any single player leading
- ›Pre-tournament form and confidence indicators from recent PGA Tour events, which traders would use to assess his likelihood of being in contention early
- ›The specific 2026 PGA Championship course setup and how it aligns with Young's strengths and weaknesses as a player
- ›Comparative market pricing for other golfers leading after Round 2, which reveals how Young's odds position relative to peers
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (4% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.