PGA Championship
Leader sits at 80% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Will Aaron Rai finish top 10 in Round 2?: Aaron Rai
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
Will Bryson DeChambeau finis
Spread
76pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$12
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 19, 2026
55 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
U.S. Open
Analysis
This contract measures whether Scottie Scheffler will finish in the top 10 after Round 2 of the PGA Championship. At 37%, the market implies roughly two-in-five odds he achieves this result. Scheffler's position reflects his standing as the world's top-ranked player and his recent performance record. The primary factors influencing this probability are Scheffler's Round 1 score and leaderboard position—strong early results would likely push his probability higher, while an unexpectedly weak start could lower it. The contract will resolve when Round 2 concludes, which determines whether he finishes among the top 10 competitors after 36 holes. The outcome depends entirely on his scoring performance against the field during an upcoming tournament round.
- ›Scheffler's Round 1 position and score relative to the cut line and top-10 threshold
- ›Field strength and typical top-10 leaderboard distribution at this PGA Championship event
- ›Course conditions, difficulty rating, and scoring trends through the first 18 holes
- ›Scheffler's recent form and historical performance in second rounds at major championships
- ›Liquidity concentration on Scheffler contract ($700 24h volume) versus other nominees, suggesting market confidence in this outcome
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (80% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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