SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (May 5, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketclosed 3 d agoCloses May 4, 2026 · 0d

Pharco FC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC - More Markets

Leader sits at 62% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 44%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

62%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 44¢leader 62¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

44¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

18pp

contested

24h volume

$17

thin orderbook

Closes

May 4, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 60% (3 days, 3 points)O/U 1.5: 60% on 2026-05-03Both Teams to Score: 43% (3 days, 3 points)Both Teams to Score: 43% on 2026-05-03O/U 2.5: 33% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 2.5: 33% on 2026-05-03
O/U 1.560¢Both Teams to Score43¢O/U 2.533¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market represents traders' current assessment that Pharco FC will win their match against El Mokawloon El Arab SC, with 43% implied probability. The relatively modest probability suggests forecasters view this as a competitive fixture without a strong favorite. The actual winning probability depends heavily on team form, head-to-head history, and whether either side enters the match with injury concerns or recent momentum shifts. The match itself—scheduled for its kickoff date—will definitively resolve this market when final results are recorded. Market depth remains modest based on contract volumes, meaning significant new information or large position entries could shift quoted prices meaningfully.

  • Recent league standings and goal differential for both teams in current season
  • Head-to-head historical record between Pharco FC and El Mokawloon El Arab SC, including home/away splits
  • Current injury roster for key players, especially strikers and defensive starters for each side
  • Team performance trend over last 5-10 matches versus seasonal average
  • Home-field advantage effect if match is played at Pharco's venue versus neutral or away location

What moved the line

  • May 3El Mokawloon El Arab SC (-2.5)5pp94¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2O/U 4.55pp138¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2El Mokawloon El Arab SC (-2.5)4pp139¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Pharco FC (-1.5)4pp139¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 d ago.