SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 3 outcomes3 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 4 min agoCloses May 12, 2026 · 3d10pp · 23h

Pharco FC vs. Modern SC

Leader sits at 27% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 23%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

27%

Modern SC

runner-up 23¢leader 27¢

Outcomes

3

winner-take-all

Runner-up

23¢

Draw (Pharco FC vs. Modern S

Spread

4pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 12, 2026

3 days

Venue

Polymarket

3 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayModern SC: 33% (2 days, 2 points)Modern SC: 33% on 2026-05-08Draw (Pharco FC vs. Modern SC): 31% (2 days, 2 points)Draw (Pharco FC vs. Modern SC): 31% on 2026-05-08Pharco FC: 39% (2 days, 2 points)Pharco FC: 39% on 2026-05-08
Modern SC33¢Draw (Pharco FC vs. Modern SC)31¢Pharco FC39¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

Pharco FC is currently priced at 37% likelihood to win an upcoming match against Modern SC, with a 32% probability assigned to Modern SC and a 30% probability of a draw across three prediction contracts. This reflects moderate confidence in a Pharco victory, though the outcome remains genuinely uncertain given the relatively close probabilities among all three outcomes. The pricing likely reflects recent form, head-to-head records, home/away status, and squad availability. Key catalysts that would shift these probabilities include team news regarding injuries or suspensions, recent performance trends, and any tactical or personnel changes announced closer to match day. The resolution will occur upon completion of the match, at which point one outcome will settle at 100% and the others at zero.

  • Pharco FC's current win probability (37%) exceeds Modern SC's (32%) but neither team is heavily favored, indicating competitive balance or limited market conviction
  • All three contracts show zero 24-hour volume, suggesting limited recent trading activity and potentially stale prices that may not reflect latest information
  • The draw outcome (30%) represents a meaningful portion of total probability mass, indicating analysts expect genuine uncertainty rather than a likely decisive result
  • Current spreads across contracts (7 percentage points between Pharco at 37% and Modern at 32%) are modest, reflecting relatively tight match expectations
  • The match outcome will be binary and fully resolvable, eliminating ambiguity about which contract settles upon completion

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.