SimpleFunctions
4 contractsKalshirefreshed 1 min agoCloses May 23, 2026 · 15d

Denver Outlaws vs Utah Archers Winner

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 46% across 4 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

46%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

46%

4 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$143

4 contracts

Closes

May 23, 2026

15 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 40% (3 days, 3 points)Aggregate: 40% on 2026-05-08
Aggregate of 4 contracts · 3d

Bracket families

2 clusters across 4 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 11% of their title tokens — “Philadelphia Waterdogs vs Maryland Whipsnakes Winner” vs “Denver Outlaws vs Utah Archers Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

What moved the line

  • May 8Philadelphia Waterdogs33pp1346¢ · Kalshi
  • May 8Utah Archers30pp333¢ · Kalshi
  • May 7Philadelphia Waterdogs11pp213¢ · Kalshi
  • May 7Maryland Whipsnakes11pp213¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.