SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 8 outcomes8 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 5 min agoCloses May 10, 2026 · 1d

Portland Timbers vs. Sporting Kansas City - More Markets

Leader sits at 86% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 67%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

86%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 67¢leader 86¢

Outcomes

8

winner-take-all

Runner-up

67¢

O/U 2.5

Spread

19pp

contested

24h volume

$529

thin orderbook

Closes

May 10, 2026

1 days

Venue

Polymarket

8 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 86% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 1.5: 86% on 2026-05-07O/U 2.5: 67% on 2026-05-07Both Teams to Score: 63% (3 days, 3 points)Both Teams to Score: 63% on 2026-05-08
O/U 1.586¢O/U 2.567¢Both Teams to Score63¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

The 64% probability reflects market expectations that both Portland Timbers and Sporting Kansas City will score in their upcoming matchup. This outcome occurs in roughly two-thirds of similar MLS contests based on current market pricing. The probability is driven primarily by both teams' recent offensive output and defensive vulnerabilities in the 2026 season. Portland's attacking threat and Kansas City's scoring tendency push the probability higher, while either team's defensive setup or conservative tactics could lower it. The match result itself—scheduled for the next regular-season game between these clubs—will definitively resolve whether both teams score, making this a straightforward binary outcome dependent on in-game performance rather than subjective interpretation.

  • Portland Timbers' goal-scoring rate this season compared to historical averages for the fixture
  • Sporting Kansas City's defensive record and conceding patterns in recent matches
  • Tactical lineup choices, injuries to key players, or formation changes announced before kickoff
  • Historical head-to-head scoring patterns between these two teams in the MLS regular season
  • Weather or field conditions on match day that typically affect scoring frequency

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.