Portugal vs. DR Congo
Leader sits at 76% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 17%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Portugal
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
17¢
Draw (Portugal vs. DR Congo)
Spread
59pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$86
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 17, 2026
39 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Portugal vs. DR Congo
Analysis
This probability reflects market participants' assessment that Portugal is favored to win an upcoming match against DR Congo, with traders pricing Portugal at 76% likelihood of victory. The wide gap between Portugal (76¢) and DR Congo (9¢) suggests confidence in Portugal's competitive advantage, likely driven by differences in FIFA ranking, recent form, or squad quality. The very low trading volume on the DR Congo contract ($5 in 24 hours) indicates limited market conviction overall, leaving room for probability shifts if new information emerges about team lineups, injuries, or tactical changes. The outcome will be determined when the match is played; no specific date or data release is visible from current contract activity.
- ›Portugal trades at 76% while DR Congo trades at 9%, creating a 67-point spread indicating substantial confidence in Portugal's superiority
- ›Trading volume concentration on the Portugal contract ($378 in 24h volume) versus DR Congo contract ($5) shows asymmetric market interest and potentially thin liquidity on the underdog
- ›The existence of multiple unrelated contracts (Colombia vs. DR Congo, DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan, Portugal vs. Uzbekistan) suggests this may be part of a multi-leg tournament or competition structure with distinct match outcomes
- ›DR Congo's contract price of 41¢ against Uzbekistan in a separate matchup provides a reference point for DR Congo's perceived strength relative to other opponents
- ›No visible contract pricing history or time-series data in the current snapshot limits ability to assess whether 76% represents a stable consensus or a recent shift in market sentiment
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.