Will Bath Rugby win the Gallagher Premiership Rugby Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
7 contracts
Closes
Jun 20, 2028
773 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Bath Rugby win the Gallagher Premiership Rugby Championship
Will Bath Rugby win the Gallagher Premiership Rugby Championship?: Bath Rugby
KXPREMCHAMP-26-BAT
Cluster 2
Will Gloucester Rugby win the Gallagher Premiership Rugby Championship
Will Gloucester Rugby win the Gallagher Premiership Rugby Championship?: Gloucester Rugby
KXPREMCHAMP-26-GLO
Cluster 3
Will Harlequin FC win the Gallagher Premiership Rugby Championship
Will Harlequin FC win the Gallagher Premiership Rugby Championship?: Harlequin FC
KXPREMCHAMP-26-HAR
Cluster 4
Will Leicester Tigers win the Gallagher Premiership Rugby Championship
Will Leicester Tigers win the Gallagher Premiership Rugby Championship?: Leicester Tigers
KXPREMCHAMP-26-LEI
Cluster 5
Will Northampton Saints win the Gallagher Premiership Rugby Championship
Will Northampton Saints win the Gallagher Premiership Rugby Championship?: Northampton Saints
KXPREMCHAMP-26-NOR
Cluster 6
Will Sale Sharks win the Gallagher Premiership Rugby Championship
Will Sale Sharks win the Gallagher Premiership Rugby Championship?: Sale Sharks
KXPREMCHAMP-26-SAL
Cluster 7
Will Newcastle Red Bulls win the Gallagher Premiership Rugby Championship
Will Newcastle Red Bulls win the Gallagher Premiership Rugby Championship?: Newcastle Red Bulls
KXPREMCHAMP-26-NEW
Analysis
A 10% probability indicates that Bath Rugby has roughly a 1-in-10 chance of winning the Gallagher Premiership Championship. This low valuation likely reflects Bath's recent competitive position within English rugby's top division. The probability could shift based on mid-season performance metrics—win-loss records, injury updates to key players, and head-to-head results against rival contenders. The 2025-26 Gallagher Premiership season culminates in playoffs and a championship match scheduled for late May or early June 2026, which will determine the winner and fully resolve this market. Teams currently favored have demonstrated stronger recent form or roster depth.
- ›Bath Rugby's league standings and points differential relative to playoff-contending teams as of late May 2026
- ›Injury status of Bath's key positional players heading into the playoff phase
- ›Historical performance variance: Bath's head-to-head records against the top 4 contenders in the current season
- ›Playoff bracket positioning: whether Bath qualifies for the knockout stages and which higher-ranked teams they would face
- ›Recent form trajectory: whether Bath is trending upward or downward in wins over the final regular-season weeks
What moved the line
- May 7Bath Rugby↑4pp7→11¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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