Will Luke Humphries win the Premier League Darts
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$537
5 contracts
Closes
Jun 12, 2026
34 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Luke Littler win the Premier League Darts
Will Luke Littler win the Premier League Darts?: Luke Littler
KXPREMDARTS-26-LLIT
Cluster 2
Will Gerwyn Price win the Premier League Darts
Will Gerwyn Price win the Premier League Darts?: Gerwyn Price
KXPREMDARTS-26-GPRI
Cluster 3
Will Luke Humphries win the Premier League Darts
Will Luke Humphries win the Premier League Darts?: Luke Humphries
KXPREMDARTS-26-LHUM
Cluster 4
Will Jonny Clayton win the Premier League Darts
Will Jonny Clayton win the Premier League Darts?: Jonny Clayton
KXPREMDARTS-26-JCLA
Cluster 5
Will Stephen Bunting win the Premier League Darts
Will Stephen Bunting win the Premier League Darts?: Stephen Bunting
KXPREMDARTS-26-SBUN
Analysis
Luke Humphries is currently priced at 19% to win the 2026 Premier League Darts, meaning the market estimates roughly a 1-in-5 chance he finishes as champion. Humphries' probability reflects his competitive position in professional darts relative to other top players in the tournament field. The current level is driven by his recent tournament performance, ranking position, and head-to-head matchup history against rivals. His probability will shift based on his results in upcoming Premier League matches throughout the season, with each week's performance providing new evidence about his form and consistency. The tournament concludes in May 2026, at which point the contract resolves based on the final standings.
- ›Humphries' recent tournament results and current world ranking position relative to other competitors
- ›Win-loss record in Premier League Darts matches during the 2026 season
- ›Average checkout percentage and three-dart average performance in league play
- ›Strength of schedule and head-to-head records against other top contenders in the field
- ›Whether injuries or form fluctuations affect his ability to maintain competitive performance through the season finale
What moved the line
- May 8Jonny Clayton↓6pp13→7¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Jonny Clayton↑3pp10→13¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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