Primeira Liga
Leader sits at 50% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 50%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Team to qualify for UEFA Champions League: Benfica
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
50¢
Team to qualify for UEFA Eur
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
23 days
Venue
Polymarket
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Primeira Liga: Team to qualify for UEFA
Primeira Liga: Team to qualify for UEFA Champions League: Benfica
0x35498c…8258
Primeira Liga: Team to qualify for UEFA Conference League: Braga
0x9a5885…7ac3
Primeira Liga: Team to qualify for UEFA Conference League: Sporting CP
0x4337a6…e223
Primeira Liga: Team to qualify for UEFA Conference League: Gil Vicente
0x1380a0…2413
Primeira Liga: Team to qualify for UEFA Conference League: Famalicão
0x18012c…e173
Primeira Liga: Team to qualify for UEFA Conference League: Benfica
0xab28ae…9f14
Primeira Liga: Team to qualify for UEFA Europa League: Braga
0xd867d7…4916
Primeira Liga: Team to qualify for UEFA Europa League: Sporting CP
0x6b9ee8…44db
Primeira Liga: Team to qualify for UEFA Europa League: Famalicão
0x56413f…0bc3
Primeira Liga: Team to qualify for UEFA Europa League: Benfica
0x3b37c2…5fd4
Primeira Liga: Team to qualify for UEFA Champions League: Sporting CP
0x430cc8…5f06
Analysis
This 51% probability represents the market's assessment that a specific team will qualify for the UEFA Conference League through Portugal's Primeira Liga. The leading contract suggests near-even odds for the outcome, with roughly equal positioning between the top contender and runner-up. Market pricing is driven by each team's current league position, remaining fixtures, and point differentials relative to competitors. The primary catalyst affecting this probability will be the final matchdays of the Primeira Liga season, where teams competing for Conference League qualification typically occupy the fifth-place finish. Contract volumes indicate moderate trading activity, with Estoril Praia and Vitória de Guimarães priced substantially higher than alternatives, suggesting these teams are market favorites. The resolution hinges entirely on final league standings when the regular season concludes.
- ›Estoril Praia and Vitória de Guimarães command 43-44¢ pricing versus 10¢ or lower for other listed teams, indicating differential probability assessments among contenders
- ›Current point differential between fifth-place and sixth-place teams determines how many matches remain before Conference League qualification is mathematically settled
- ›Trading volume concentration in Alverca ($302 24h) and Arouca ($249 24h) contracts suggests active price discovery despite their lower individual probabilities
- ›The 51% leader-versus-50% runner-up spread indicates minimal separation between two outcomes, reflecting genuine uncertainty rather than consensus
- ›Final Primeira Liga regular season date will provide definitive settlement, with no appeals or post-season qualification mechanisms affecting the outcome
What moved the line
- May 7Team to qualify for UEFA Conference League: Benfica↑37pp1→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Team to qualify for UEFA Europa League: Famalicão↓36pp47→11¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Team to qualify for UEFA Conference League: Benfica↓26pp27→1¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Team to qualify for UEFA Conference League: Sporting CP↓14pp46→32¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Team to qualify for UEFA Conference League: Benfica↓12pp39→27¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.