Primeira Liga: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor)

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects the market assessment of which team will finish 16th in Portugal's Primeira Liga, avoiding automatic relegation. At 47%, the leading outcome is slightly favored but carries meaningful uncertainty, with a runner-up contract trading just 1 point lower. The market is pricing in a competitive battle among multiple teams near the relegation zone, where goal differential, head-to-head records, and final-day matchups typically determine outcomes. The primary drivers are each team's current points total, remaining fixture difficulty, and injury status of key players. The season concludes in late May, when final league standings are confirmed and relegation is mathematically determined. Historical volatility in Portuguese league relegation battles suggests probabilities may shift significantly as the season's final weeks approach and key results emerge.

• ›Multiple contracts trading within 3–4 percentage points indicates genuine competitive clustering in the relegation zone rather than a clear favorite
• ›Rio Ave (40¢) and Estrela da Amadora (43¢) are the two specific 16th-place survivors being priced, suggesting these are the primary contenders for survival in that position
• ›Low 24-hour volumes ($0–$50 across top contracts) signal limited recent trading activity and potential for sharper repricing once matches resume or late-season drama unfolds
• ›Primeira Liga's compressed final schedule in May typically produces rapid standings shifts; teams' remaining opponents and point gaps are critical determinants of survival probability
• ›Historical Primeira Liga relegation races show multiple teams often finish within 2–3 points, making late-season results (especially goals scored and head-to-head outcomes) the decisive factor over remaining weeks

What moved the line

• May 616th Place (Relegation Survivor): Nacional↓17pp46→29¢ · Polymarket

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds