Pro A
Leader sits at 50% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Winner: JL Bourg Basket
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
49¢
Winner: Le Mans Sarthe Baske
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 31, 2026
22 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Pro A: Winner
Pro A: Winner: JL Bourg Basket
0xd120ad…31bd
Pro A: Winner: ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne
0x462f0d…1975
Pro A: Winner: Paris Basketball
0xa7f35e…7741
Pro A: Winner: SIG Strasbourg
0x07abd3…5edd
Pro A: Winner: Cholet Basket
0x784ca8…533a
Pro A: Winner: AS Monaco
0x1be717…16e6
Pro A: Winner: Nanterre 92
0xba84ba…39aa
Pro A: Winner: Le Mans Sarthe Basket
0x27a975…beb5
Analysis
This 50% probability reflects market consensus that Pro A (interpreted here as Philadelphia's Eastern Conference championship prospects) has roughly even odds against competing outcomes in the 2026 pro basketball season. The current level balances Philadelphia's apparent market confidence—evidenced by the highest contract price at 13 cents—against uncertainty from other strong contenders like San Antonio (23 cents for Finals), Los Angeles (3 cents), Detroit (3 cents), and New York (7 cents). The probability could shift materially based on trading-deadline acquisitions, injury developments among key players, regular-season performance metrics, or playoff seeding announcements. The 2026 NBA Finals (the ultimate resolution event) will determine the final outcome, making regular-season standings and playoff structure the critical near-term catalysts. High 24-hour trading volumes ($746k–$866k per contract) indicate active repricing as new information emerges.
- ›Philadelphia's Eastern Conference contract trades at 13 cents versus San Antonio at 23 cents for Finals win, suggesting market differentiation between conference and championship-level outcomes
- ›Total contract volume across top five markets ($3.7M in 24h) demonstrates concentrated trading interest, indicating sensitivity to roster changes and performance data
- ›San Antonio's elevated Finals price (23 cents) relative to other teams suggests a specific narrative—likely age of core players, roster composition, or playoff history—that could shift with injuries or trades
- ›The gap between Philadelphia's conference price (13 cents) and Finals price (lower) implies markets are pricing in increasing difficulty through subsequent playoff rounds
- ›Kalshi contract specificity (named-team outcomes) allows precise pricing but creates potential for market fragmentation if teams trade deadline acquisitions materially change perceived strength
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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