Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract estimates a 45% probability that a project will reach a $300 million fully diluted valuation within one day of launching. The leading market position reflects meaningful disagreement among traders: the runner-up sits at 44%, indicating genuine uncertainty rather than consensus. Most markets show lower confidence in higher valuation thresholds ($500M and $800M trade at 44¢ and 17¢ respectively), while lower thresholds command near-certainty pricing ($50M at 94¢). The primary factors shaping this probability are the project's pre-launch momentum, token allocation structure, and comparable launch performances in the current market cycle. Resolution depends entirely on the official launch date and real-time FDV calculations immediately following. Significant token unlocks, investor demand patterns, or regulatory announcements closer to launch could shift this estimate materially in either direction.

• ›Current market split between 45% and 44% top contracts indicates low conviction—neither outcome is heavily favored, suggesting traders view this as genuinely uncertain rather than predictable
• ›Lower valuation thresholds ($50M–$100M) price at 94¢–89¢, while higher ones ($500M–$1B) price at 44¢–17¢, showing a declining-confidence curve consistent with typical launch dynamics
• ›24-hour trading volume concentrated in $500M–$800M contracts ($5.5K–$6K) rather than the $300M threshold, suggesting active disagreement on mid-range scenarios but less interest in the exact $300M level
• ›Post-launch FDV determination depends on token supply and price at market open—any surprises in allocation, lock-up schedules, or initial trading behavior will directly move this probability
• ›Historical comparable launches and current token market conditions will establish baseline expectations; absence of major pre-launch catalysts suggests market is pricing base-case scenario with roughly even odds

What moved the line

• May 6$500M↓17pp43→26¢ · Polymarket
• May 6$100M↓15pp25→10¢ · Polymarket
• May 7$200M↓10pp37→27¢ · Polymarket
• May 6$200M↓8pp45→37¢ · Polymarket
• May 2$800M↓5pp15→10¢ · Polymarket

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds