Will Paramount Skydance CORP report above 70 million paramount+ global subscribers in Q1 2026
Leader sits at 94% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 94%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 70 million
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
94¢
Above 72 million
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$128
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 30, 2026
113 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Paramount Skydance CORP report above
Will Paramount Skydance CORP report above 78 million paramount+ global subscribers in Q1 2026?: above 78 million
KXPSKY-26JULPARSUBS-78000000.0
Will Paramount Skydance CORP report above 80 million paramount+ global subscribers in Q1 2026?: Above 80 million
KXPSKY-26JULPARSUBS-80000000.0
Will Paramount Skydance CORP report above 76 million paramount+ global subscribers in Q1 2026?: above 76 million
KXPSKY-26JULPARSUBS-76000000.0
Will Paramount Skydance CORP report above 74 million paramount+ global subscribers in Q1 2026?: Above 74 million
KXPSKY-26JULPARSUBS-74000000.0
Will Paramount Skydance CORP report above 72 million paramount+ global subscribers in Q1 2026?: Above 72 million
KXPSKY-26JULPARSUBS-72000000.0
Will Paramount Skydance CORP report above 70 million paramount+ global subscribers in Q1 2026?: Above 70 million
KXPSKY-26JULPARSUBS-70000000.0
Analysis
This market reflects a 97% probability that Paramount Skydance will report above 76 million Paramount+ global subscribers in Q1 2026. The high confidence is driven by Paramount's recent subscriber growth trajectory and the relatively modest threshold set by this contract tier. The main factors that could pressure this prediction downward include slower-than-expected subscriber acquisition, higher churn rates, or strategic changes to subscription bundling. The Q1 2026 earnings release and accompanying subscriber metrics report—typically scheduled for late April or early May 2026—will definitively resolve this contract. Market depth is visible across multiple subscriber tiers (76M, 78M, 80M), with prices declining sharply at higher thresholds, suggesting traders view the 76M level as highly achievable but growth beyond 80 million as uncertain.
- ›Paramount+ reported 70 million global subscribers in Q4 2025; achieving 76+ million by Q1 2026 requires only 6+ million net additions over three months
- ›The 97% price on the 76M contract versus 18% on the 80M contract indicates market consensus that modest growth is highly probable but substantial acceleration is not
- ›Paramount's bundling with other services (including Paramount Essential and Premium tiers) and international expansion are primary drivers of subscriber additions
- ›The official Q1 2026 earnings release, expected in late April/May 2026, will provide audited subscriber counts that directly settle this market
- ›Historical churn patterns, marketing spend decisions, and competitive pressure from Netflix, Disney+, and other platforms could significantly affect quarterly subscriber net change
What moved the line
- May 3Above 80 million↓6pp24→18¢ · Kalshi
- May 3above 78 million↑5pp75→80¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 d ago.