Qatar vs. Switzerland
Leader sits at 77% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Switzerland
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
Draw (Qatar vs. Switzerland)
Spread
61pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Jun 13, 2026
35 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Qatar vs. Switzerland
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Switzerland will defeat Qatar in an upcoming match. The 75% price for Switzerland indicates strong confidence in their victory, while Qatar's 10-17¢ pricing suggests markets view them as significant underdogs. The gap likely reflects differences in recent form, head-to-head history, or current squad strength. The resolution will depend on match performance on the scheduled date, with injury updates, lineup changes, or tactical adjustments potentially shifting expectations before kickoff. Weather conditions and home/away advantage may also influence outcomes.
- ›Switzerland has been priced at 75¢ across multiple contracts while Qatar trades at 10-17¢, indicating a sustained market view of Switzerland as heavy favorites
- ›Polymarket and Kalshi contracts show consistent directionality, with Switzerland's price stable around 74-75¢ across platforms
- ›Qatar's pricing in direct head-to-head matchups (10¢ on Polymarket) versus alternative pairings (17¢ in Canada vs. Qatar contract) suggests context-dependent risk assessment
- ›Volume concentration around Switzerland's contract ($111 24h volume on Kalshi) indicates active trading conviction rather than thin-market anomalies
- ›The 58-point gap between Switzerland (75%) and the runner-up (17%) suggests market participants see this as a more decisive outcome than a competitive fixture
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.