QFEX FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Leader sits at 75% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 45%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$50M
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
45¢
$500M
Spread
30pp
contested
24h volume
$65
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
602 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
QFEX FDV above ___ one day after launch
QFEX FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $50M
0xf5fe7c…179f
QFEX FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M
0x0f4ab4…d955
QFEX FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $200M
0xcece7c…0501
QFEX FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $80M
0x8a12f5…841a
QFEX FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M
0xea087b…5b34
QFEX FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M
0x66df60…ebf0
Analysis
This market estimates a 66% probability that QFEX will achieve a fully diluted valuation (FDV) above $50 million within one day of its launch. The relatively high probability reflects moderate confidence in QFEX reaching this valuation threshold early, though significant uncertainty remains. The probability could move higher if early indicators suggest strong demand or institutional interest pre-launch, and lower if comparable project launches underperform or market conditions deteriorate. The main catalyst is QFEX's actual launch event, which will determine whether trading volume and initial pricing support the $50M+ valuation level. Market-wide conditions and competing protocol launches in the same period will also influence whether investors allocate capital to this asset at launch.
- ›QFEX's stated tokenomics, initial token supply, and launch allocation structure—which directly determine the token price needed to reach $50M FDV
- ›Comparable project launches and their day-one valuations, particularly whether recent similar protocols achieved or exceeded this threshold
- ›Pre-launch sentiment indicators including social media engagement, developer participation, and institutional commitments
- ›Market conditions at launch date—broader crypto market sentiment and available capital seeking entry points
- ›Liquidity available on launch day and the exchange(s) or mechanisms through which QFEX tokens will be tradeable
What moved the line
- May 6$50M↓12pp64→52¢ · Polymarket
- May 3$100M↑11pp38→49¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$500M↑11pp25→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 2$50M↑9pp55→64¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$200M↓7pp50→43¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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