Will Ferrari N.V. report above 3500 total shipments in Q1 2026
Leader sits at 92% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 69%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 3200
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
69¢
Above 3400
Spread
23pp
contested
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
Jun 4, 2026
26 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Ferrari N.V. report above 3
Will Ferrari N.V. report above 3500 total shipments in Q1 2026?: above 3500
KXRACE-26MAYSHIP-3500
Will Ferrari N.V. report above 3200 total shipments in Q1 2026?: Above 3200
KXRACE-26MAYSHIP-3200
Will Ferrari N.V. report above 3400 total shipments in Q1 2026?: Above 3400
KXRACE-26MAYSHIP-3400
Will Ferrari N.V. report above 3300 total shipments in Q1 2026?: Above 3300
KXRACE-26MAYSHIP-3300
Analysis
This market estimates a 96% probability that Ferrari will report above 3,500 total shipments in Q1 2026. The high probability reflects confidence in Ferrari meeting or exceeding this threshold, likely based on historical delivery patterns and existing order backlogs. The key factors driving this estimate include Ferrari's production capacity, recent quarterly shipment trends, and any supply chain disruptions affecting manufacturing. The resolution will occur when Ferrari publishes its Q1 2026 earnings report, typically in late April or early May 2026, which will provide the official shipment count. Market movements would primarily reflect updated production data, supply chain news, or management guidance that suggests actual Q1 shipments could fall below the 3,500 threshold.
- ›Ferrari's historical quarterly shipment volumes and whether Q1 2026 shows typical seasonal patterns or anomalies
- ›Supply chain status for key components and any production line disruptions reported between now and quarter-end
- ›Order backlog size and customer delivery schedules as of early 2026
- ›Any management guidance or preliminary production announcements that would indicate track-to-target status
- ›Currency fluctuations or market conditions that might affect delivery timing or customer acceptance
What moved the line
- May 3above 3500↑3pp30→33¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Above 3400↑3pp74→77¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Above 3300↓3pp88→85¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Above 3300↑3pp85→88¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 d ago.