SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 4 outcomes4 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 1 d agoCloses May 8, 2026 · 0d

Racing Louisville FC vs. Portland Thorns FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5

Leader sits at 72% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 45%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

72%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 45¢leader 72¢

Outcomes

4

winner-take-all

Runner-up

45¢

O/U 2.5

Spread

27pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 8, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

4 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 73% (3 days, 3 points)O/U 1.5: 73% on 2026-05-08O/U 2.5: 48% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 2.5: 48% on 2026-05-07O/U 3.5: 29% (3 days, 3 points)O/U 3.5: 29% on 2026-05-08
O/U 1.573¢O/U 2.548¢O/U 3.529¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market estimates a 65% probability that the Racing Louisville FC vs. Portland Thorns FC match will produce more than 1.5 goals combined. The market reflects expectations about both teams' offensive capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities. Related over/under markets at 2.5 (54%) and 3.5 (32%) goals show declining probability at higher thresholds, suggesting most traders expect a moderately low-scoring match rather than a goal fest. The resolution depends on the teams' recent form, injury status, and how each squad's scoring and defensive metrics compare. The match outcome will occur on its scheduled date and resolve definitively once final score is confirmed.

  • Recent goal-scoring output for both Racing Louisville and Portland Thorns in the 2026 season compared to their season averages
  • Defensive efficiency trends for each team, particularly goals conceded in recent fixtures
  • Team news including available players, injuries to key attacking or defensive personnel, and starting XI composition
  • Head-to-head historical scoring patterns between these specific opponents
  • Current league standings and competitive pressure that might influence team tactical approach for this fixture

What moved the line

  • May 8O/U 3.510pp3929¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7O/U 1.56pp6672¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7O/U 3.56pp3339¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7O/U 2.53pp4548¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.