Rain in Los Angeles in Apr 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
3%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$615
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
23 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Rain in Los Angeles in May 2026
Rain in Los Angeles in May 2026?: Above 1 inch
KXRAINLAXM-26MAY-1
Analysis
This 7% probability indicates traders estimate roughly a 1-in-14 chance that Los Angeles will receive more than 1 inch of rain during May 2026. The forecast reflects May's typical weather patterns in Southern California, where precipitation is uncommon as the region transitions into its dry season. The probability could shift based on evolving seasonal weather models and any changes to the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The resolution will depend on official rainfall measurements from National Weather Service stations in the Los Angeles area recorded during May 1-31, 2026. Trading volumes remain modest, suggesting limited market interest or high consensus around this outcome.
- ›May is historically Los Angeles' driest month, with average rainfall under 0.1 inches
- ›Seasonal weather pattern forecasts issued in late April-early May 2026 will be the primary new information available to traders
- ›Any subtropical moisture systems or Pacific storms tracking toward Southern California in late April would be visible in extended forecasts and could shift probabilities upward
- ›The tiered outcomes (1 inch vs. 2 inches) show traders view >2 inches as substantially less likely (3% price) than >1 inch (7% price)
- ›Official NWS Los Angeles precipitation data measured at designated stations will serve as the definitive resolution source
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.