Rain in San Francisco in Apr 2026
Leader sits at 13% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 7%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 1 inch
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
7¢
Above 2 inches
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$678
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
23 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Rain in San Francisco in May 2026
What moved the line
- May 7Above 1 inch↓4pp14→10¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Above 2 inches↑3pp3→6¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Above 2 inches↓3pp6→3¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Above 2 inches↓3pp5→2¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Above 1 inch↑3pp11→14¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.