RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Iwaki FC - More Markets
Leader sits at 77% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 59%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
59¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$61
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Iwaki FC - More Markets
RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Iwaki FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x2195c5…48b0
RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Iwaki FC - More Markets: RB Ōmiya Ardija (-1.5)
0xe2879d…4d3a
RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Iwaki FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xbb1f4e…b486
RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Iwaki FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x728f89…870a
RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Iwaki FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x0f34a8…10f8
RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Iwaki FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xfacf32…cc9f
RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Iwaki FC - More Markets: Iwaki FC (-2.5)
0x129775…a1cd
RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Iwaki FC - More Markets: RB Ōmiya Ardija (-2.5)
0x8e56cc…7711
RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Iwaki FC - More Markets: Iwaki FC (-1.5)
0x3783e6…bf0a
Analysis
This market reflects traders' assessment that RB Ōmiya Ardija and Iwaki FC have roughly equal likelihood of winning their matchup, with one outcome priced 17 percentage points higher than the second-place option. The current 50% probability suggests no clear consensus favorite, which typically reflects either balanced team strength, limited recent data, or disagreement about lineup or form. Movement in this probability would depend on updates to team injury status, recent results, or weather conditions affecting play. The match itself serves as the resolution event, making pre-match information like team news and starting lineups the primary catalysts for probability shifts in the hours before kickoff.
- ›Relative league position and recent win-loss records of both RB Ōmiya Ardija and Iwaki FC in their current competition
- ›Availability of key players due to injuries, suspensions, or other absences heading into the match
- ›Historical head-to-head record and goal differential in direct matchups between the two teams
- ›Market depth and trading volume relative to other soccer markets, indicating confidence level among traders
- ›Distance traveled and schedule fatigue if one team is playing their second match in a short window
What moved the line
- May 6Iwaki FC (-2.5)↓24pp35→11¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Iwaki FC (-1.5)↓19pp36→17¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 1.5↑18pp63→81¢ · Polymarket
- May 6RB Ōmiya Ardija (-2.5)↓18pp33→15¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Both Teams to Score↑17pp51→68¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.