Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC
Leader sits at 66% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 23%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Santos FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
23¢
Draw (Recoleta FC vs. Santos
Spread
43pp
contested
24h volume
$7K
modest
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC
Analysis
The 56% probability reflects market participants' assessment that Santos FC is favored to win this matchup against Recoleta FC. This represents a notable lean toward Santos, though not an overwhelming consensus. Market pricing suggests Santos holds a meaningful advantage, likely driven by team form, recent head-to-head records, or current squad composition. The outcome will be determined when the two teams play, which will definitively resolve whether Santos' market-implied edge translates to an actual victory. Key uncertainties that could shift probabilities include injury updates to key players, team lineup announcements closer to match day, or late tactical information that signals different expected performance levels.
- ›Santos FC's current league standing and recent performance record compared to Recoleta FC's recent results
- ›Historical head-to-head outcomes between the two clubs and goal differential patterns in those matches
- ›Injury status or availability of key players for either squad that would materially affect expected performance
- ›Home/away venue dynamics if one team's home record substantially differs from their away record
- ›Market volume and contract pricing consistency—the 56% price on Polymarket shows $0 volume, suggesting limited recent trading depth
What moved the line
- May 6Recoleta FC↓13pp19→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Santos FC↑11pp57→68¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Draw (Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC)↑5pp25→30¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 d ago.