SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (May 9, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all · 4 outcomes4 contractsPolymarketclosed 3 h agoCloses May 9, 2026 · 0d

Renofa Yamaguchi FC vs. Tegevajaro Miyazaki - More Markets: O/U 3.5

Leader sits at 71% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 45%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

71%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 45¢leader 71¢

Outcomes

4

winner-take-all

Runner-up

45¢

O/U 2.5

Spread

26pp

contested

24h volume

$63

thin orderbook

Closes

May 9, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

4 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 65% (3 days, 3 points)O/U 1.5: 65% on 2026-05-08O/U 2.5: 54% (3 days, 3 points)O/U 2.5: 54% on 2026-05-08O/U 3.5: 36% (3 days, 3 points)O/U 3.5: 36% on 2026-05-08
O/U 1.565¢O/U 2.554¢O/U 3.536¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market reflects the probability that a J2 League match between Renofa Yamaguchi FC and Tegevajaro Miyazaki will end with at least 2 total goals scored. The 60% price on the under-1.5 goals contract suggests market participants view a low-scoring outcome as more likely than a higher-scoring one. Current pricing across the goal-total ladder—with under-2.5 at 54% and under-3.5 at 36%—indicates scattered confidence; traders appear uncertain whether matches between these teams tend toward 0–1 goals or 2–3 goals. The match outcome itself will resolve all four contracts once the final whistle sounds. Recent form, defensive capabilities, and attacking efficiency of both sides would be primary factors shifting probabilities before kickoff.

  • J2 League fixture between lower-ranked sides, where defensive solidity and limited offensive output are typical; historical goal averages for each team provide baseline expectations
  • Current 24-hour trading volume is zero across all four contracts, indicating thin liquidity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads that may not reflect deep conviction
  • Renofa Yamaguchi and Tegevajaro Miyazaki's recent head-to-head records, season goal differential, and injury status directly influence scoring likelihood
  • The spread between under-1.5 (60%), under-2.5 (54%), and under-3.5 (36%) suggests moderate disagreement about whether 2 goals or 3+ goals is the true inflection point
  • Match date and time are essential: time-of-day factors, weather conditions, and playoff/promotion implications (if applicable) could shift defensive urgency

What moved the line

  • May 7O/U 4.512pp2412¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7O/U 3.56pp3137¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.