RFK Akhmat Groznyi vs. FK Dinamo Makhachkala - More Markets: FK Dinamo Makhachkala (-1.5)
Leader sits at 10% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
FK Dinamo Makhachkala (-1.5)
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
FK Dinamo Makhachkala (-2.5)
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$10
thin orderbook
Closes
May 10, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
RFK Akhmat Groznyi vs. FK Dinamo Makhachkala - More Markets: FK Dinamo Makhachkala
Analysis
This market estimates a 12% probability that FK Dinamo Makhachkala will win by 1.5 goals or more against RFK Akhmat Groznyi in an upcoming fixture. The low probability reflects Akhmat's historically stronger position in Russian football, though Dinamo has shown competitive capability in recent seasons. The current pricing suggests market participants view Akhmat as a significant favorite, with Dinamo needing either a strong tactical advantage or Akhmat underperforming to achieve a 1.5+ goal margin victory. The resolution depends entirely on the match outcome when it is played. Key drivers include each team's recent form, head-to-head record, squad availability, and home-field advantage if applicable. Liquidity remains minimal across both contracts ($0 24h volume), indicating limited market depth and potential for price volatility if new information emerges about team lineups or conditions.
- ›RFK Akhmat Groznyi's league position and historical performance record compared to FK Dinamo Makhachkala in the Russian football system
- ›FK Dinamo Makhachkala's recent form trend and goal differential over the last 5-10 matches entering this fixture
- ›Head-to-head historical results between these two clubs, including whether Dinamo has previously won by 1.5+ goals
- ›Squad injury status and player availability for both teams at time of match, particularly key offensive or defensive players
- ›Match venue (home/away status for each team) and whether either team has a significant home-field advantage
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (10% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.