Richest person on December 31, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 90% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
90%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$23
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Richest person on December 31, 2026
Richest person on December 31, 2026?: Elon Musk
0x01529e…608f
Analysis
This market estimates an 89% probability that the current richest person in the world will retain that position through December 31, 2026. The high probability reflects the difficulty of displacing established ultra-high-net-worth individuals within an 8-month timeframe. Movements in this ranking depend primarily on cryptocurrency volatility (which affects holdings of major crypto entrepreneurs) and equity market performance (impacting billionaires with concentrated stock positions). The main uncertainty stems from potential wealth transfer events, major acquisition announcements, or significant asset price swings. Resolution will be determined by verified net worth calculations as of year-end 2026, with particular attention to real-time market valuations of major holdings. The broader economy's performance through late 2026, combined with sector-specific dynamics in technology and finance, will meaningfully influence whether wealth concentration remains stable.
- ›Current wealth rankings are dominated by individuals with significant cryptocurrency holdings; major Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements by year-end could substantially alter relative positions
- ›Stock market performance of mega-cap tech companies will directly impact wealth of top entrepreneurs holding large equity stakes in their own companies
- ›Major M&A or asset sales announced before December 31, 2026 could create sudden wealth shifts among ultra-high-net-worth individuals
- ›Regulatory changes affecting cryptocurrency valuations or wealth taxation could impact how net worth is calculated as of year-end
- ›The 89% probability suggests markets view wealth concentration as relatively stable, implying significant new events would be required to change the ranking
What moved the line
- May 6Elon Musk↑3pp87→90¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (90% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.