Roasso Kumamoto vs. FC Ryūkyū
Leader sits at 45% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 36%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Roasso Kumamoto
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
36¢
FC Ryūkyū
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 10, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Roasso Kumamoto vs. FC Ryūkyū
Analysis
The market assigns Roasso Kumamoto a 47% chance of winning against FC Ryūkyū, with a 39% probability assigned to a draw outcome. This reflects near-parity between the two teams, suggesting traders view them as closely matched. The probability is likely influenced by recent form, head-to-head record, and current league standings. Key drivers of movement would include team injury reports, lineup changes, or shifts in seasonal momentum leading up to the match. The match itself will resolve the contract when the final whistle sounds, making the actual result the primary catalyst. Low 24-hour trading volume indicates limited recent activity, suggesting the current price may reflect older information rather than recent developments.
- ›Roasso Kumamoto currently holds a 47% win probability versus 39% for a draw, with the remaining 14% implied for FC Ryūkyū, indicating the market views Roasso as slight favorites
- ›Zero trading volume in the past 24 hours on both contracts suggests prices may not reflect real-time team news or recent performance updates
- ›The ~8 percentage point gap between Roasso and draw outcomes indicates asymmetry in how traders assess match outcomes rather than three-way equiprobability
- ›Current league position, recent match results, and head-to-head historical performance between the clubs would significantly influence whether this probability proves calibrated
- ›The match date determines when resolution occurs; any postponement or scheduling changes would extend the period of uncertainty
What moved the line
- May 7Draw (Roasso Kumamoto vs. FC Ryūkyū)↓3pp35→32¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.