Will Quenlin Blackwell be Official host of Vogue’s “Live at the Met Gala 2026” broadcast at Met Gala 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
5%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$138
2 contracts
Closes
May 9, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Keke Palmer be Official host of Vogue’s “Live at the Met Gala 2026” broadcast at Met Gala 2026
Cluster 2
Will Alex Cooper be Official host of Vogue’s “Live at the Met Gala 2026” broadcast at Met Gala 2026
Analysis
This market measures the likelihood that Quenlin Blackwell will be announced as the official host of Vogue's broadcast coverage for the 2026 Met Gala, currently trading at 23%. The probability reflects uncertainty about Vogue's hosting selection for their media partnership. Key drivers include Blackwell's current media profile and hosting experience relative to competing candidates, and Vogue's typical selection criteria for their annual broadcast host role. The resolution will occur when Vogue officially announces the 2026 Met Gala broadcast host, which typically happens in the weeks before the event in early May. Historical patterns of who Vogue selects for this prestigious position, Blackwell's recent television appearances, and any official statements from Vogue or related media outlets would inform trader expectations around this outcome.
- ›Vogue's official announcement of the 2026 Met Gala broadcast host has not yet been publicly made as of early May 2026
- ›Quenlin Blackwell's recent media presence and television hosting experience compared to other potential candidates
- ›Historical precedent showing which types of celebrities or media personalities Vogue typically selects for their Met Gala broadcast partnerships
- ›Any public statements or hints from Vogue, NBC, or other media partners involved in broadcasting the 2026 Met Gala
- ›The timing of the actual Met Gala event in May 2026 and when hosting announcements are typically made relative to the event date
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (5% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 d ago.