Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General by June 30
Leader sits at 93% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Todd Blanche
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
No Announcement by June 30
Spread
87pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$39K
liquid
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
25 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General by June 30
Analysis
This market reflects the probability that Trump will publicly name an Attorney General nominee before June 30, 2026. Currently, the market suggests it is more likely than not that no announcement occurs by that deadline. The probability hinges on Trump's timeline for filling the position and whether he prioritizes Attorney General appointments early in his term. The critical catalyst will be any public announcement or statement from Trump or his team regarding a specific nominee. Markets often price in delays when official nomination processes have not yet begun or when political deliberation remains active.
- ›Trump has not yet made a public announcement as of May 2026, leaving 49 days until the June 30 deadline
- ›The leading candidate (Lee Zeldin) trades at 9 cents, indicating no single nominee has market consensus
- ›Todd Blanche at 10 cents is the highest-priced individual in the contracts, suggesting fragmented expectations across multiple potential candidates
- ›Historical precedent: Attorney General nominations typically occur within the first few months of a presidential term, but timing varies significantly
- ›Combined probability of all named candidates totals approximately 35 cents, leaving 50 cents attributed to no announcement—indicating substantial uncertainty about both timing and candidate selection
What moved the line
- Jun 4Todd Blanche↑57pp30→87¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 4No Announcement by June 30↓42pp52→10¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3No Announcement by June 30↓21pp73→52¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3Todd Blanche↑19pp11→30¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1Todd Blanche↑6pp8→14¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in trump
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- Who will Trump speak to in Maylast 20% · 2d
- Will Trump publicly insult someone on...last 93% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (93% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In trump
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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