Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
97%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Romanian PM Bolojan out by
Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?: December 31
0xf3c9f3…d0b8
Analysis
This market estimates an 85% probability that Ludovic Bolojan will no longer serve as Romania's Prime Minister by year-end 2026. Bolojan took office in March 2024, and the high probability reflects the typical political volatility in Romania's coalition governments, which frequently experience early exits through government collapses, reshuffles, or electoral changes. The market is pricing in the likelihood of early elections or governmental instability within the next eight months. Key factors include Romania's fragmented coalition dynamics, recent political disputes, potential snap elections, or shifts in coalition partner priorities. The main uncertainty will be resolved through either the occurrence of scheduled elections in 2028 proceeding as planned with Bolojan intact, or through a political event forcing his departure earlier. The 85% level suggests market participants view his tenure as significantly at risk despite no imminent crisis being publicly announced, indicating expectations of institutional turbulence typical in recent Romanian politics.
- ›Romania's governing coalition composition and stability; historical pattern of Romanian coalition governments collapsing before term completion
- ›Scheduled national elections currently planned for 2028; any call for snap elections would significantly increase probability of Bolojan's exit
- ›Recent disputes between coalition partners or governing party internal conflicts that could trigger cabinet reshuffles or resignation
- ›International or domestic economic pressures that could force government restructuring or prompt early electoral contests
- ›Timeline pressure: 245 days remaining until December 31, 2026 deadline; typical political cycles in Romania suggest multiple opportunities for government transition
What moved the line
- May 6December 31↑14pp85→99¢ · Polymarket
- May 2December 31↑3pp82→85¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
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This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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