Chicago Hounds vs Old Glory DC Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
50%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
May 18, 2026
9 days
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Old Glory DC vs Seattle Seawolves Winner
Old Glory DC vs Seattle Seawolves Winner?: Seattle Seawolves
KXRUGBYMLRMATCH-26MAY10OLDSEA-SEA
Analysis
This contract reflects the probability that the Chicago Hounds will win the championship, currently assessed at 4%. The low probability suggests market participants view the Hounds as significant underdogs relative to other remaining contenders. Key drivers include team performance metrics, playoff seeding position, and remaining opponents in their path to the title. The contract will be resolved once the championship series concludes and a winner is determined. Recent trading activity shows liquidity concentrated in other matchups, particularly around the Western Conference Finals and lower-seeded teams' advancement odds, indicating market focus elsewhere. The outcome depends on the Hounds' ability to advance through successive playoff rounds against stronger-seeded competition and win the final series.
- ›Chicago Hounds' playoff seeding position and strength of schedule relative to other conference contenders
- ›Win probability differentials in earlier playoff rounds they must navigate before reaching the championship
- ›Historical performance and betting market consensus on their roster talent compared to favorites
- ›Recent form and injury status of key players that would affect playoff performance
- ›Volume and pricing patterns in related contracts (Arizona, San Diego matchups) indicating relative confidence in Hounds versus alternative paths to the title
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (50% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.