Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Elections: 2nd Place
Leader sits at 89% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
2nd Place: CDU
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
2nd Place: AfD
Spread
81pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$50
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 6, 2026
120 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Elections: 2nd Place
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that a specific party will finish in second place in the upcoming Sachsen-Anhalt state parliamentary elections in Germany. At 6%, the market is pricing this as a relatively unlikely outcome, suggesting one or two parties are heavily favored over others for the runner-up position. The current level reflects available polling data and recent political trends in this eastern German state. The main factors influencing this probability are recent polling trends showing which parties have consolidated support, the degree of uncertainty in voter turnout and potential shifts between the first and second-place finishers, and strategic voting patterns that could emerge before election day. The election itself will resolve all uncertainty when it occurs, providing definitive results for final vote shares and rankings among all competing parties.
- ›Recent polling aggregates showing which parties are polling in first and second place positions in Sachsen-Anhalt
- ›Historical volatility in eastern German state elections and the degree of polling error in predicting second-place finishes
- ›Potential for voter consolidation or fragmentation among smaller parties that could shift final rankings
- ›Turnout expectations and demographic shifts that could alter the balance between competing parties
- ›Date and timing of the election, as this determines when the market resolves based on official results
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (89% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.