SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 6 min agoCloses May 10, 2026 · 1d20pp · 24h

Santos FC vs. Red Bull Bragantino - More Markets

Leader sits at 71% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 50%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

71%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 50¢leader 71¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

50¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

21pp

contested

24h volume

$16

thin orderbook

Closes

May 10, 2026

1 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayBoth Teams to Score: 52% (2 days, 2 points)Both Teams to Score: 52% on 2026-05-08O/U 2.5: 44% (2 days, 2 points)O/U 2.5: 44% on 2026-05-08O/U 3.5: 24% on 2026-05-07
Both Teams to Score52¢O/U 2.544¢O/U 3.524¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market is pricing the likelihood that both Santos FC and Red Bull Bragantino will each score at least one goal in their matchup at 51%. The high concentration of trading volume in this contract ($7 in 24 hours) relative to spread bets suggests traders view a multi-goal outcome as more probable than a shutout scenario. Factors supporting this probability include typical Serie A scoring patterns and the attacking profiles of both clubs. The market would shift upward if recent team form shows increased goal-scoring or injury reports remove defensive key players; it would decline if either team enters the match depleted in attack or if weather conditions favor defensive play. The primary resolution point is the final match result on the scheduled game date, where actual goals scored will determine the contract outcome.

  • 24-hour volume of $7 concentrated on the Both Teams to Score contract versus near-zero volume on spread bets indicates market consensus toward multi-goal outcomes
  • Current lineup availability, recent injury reports, and recent goal-scoring performance for both Santos and Bragantino would directly affect the probability of each team finding the net
  • Historical head-to-head scoring patterns between these clubs and Serie A's typical goals-per-match rate provide statistical baseline for the 51% pricing
  • Spread contracts pricing (Santos -1.5, -2.5 and Bragantino -1.5, -2.5 all under 20¢) show low conviction in lopsided scorelines, supporting higher both-teams-to-score odds
  • Weather conditions and surface quality on match day could materially influence defensive solidity and scoring opportunities for both teams

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.