SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 3 outcomes3 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 3 h agoCloses May 9, 2026 · 0d

Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Fredrikstad FK

Leader sits at 47% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

47%

Sarpsborg 08 FF

runner-up 28¢leader 47¢

Outcomes

3

winner-take-all

Runner-up

28¢

Fredrikstad FK

Spread

19pp

contested

24h volume

$4K

modest

Closes

May 9, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

3 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodaySarpsborg 08 FF: 47% (3 days, 2 points)Sarpsborg 08 FF: 47% on 2026-05-08Fredrikstad FK: 29% on 2026-05-06Draw (Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Fredrikstad FK): 26% (3 days, 2 points)Draw (Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Fredrikstad FK): 26% on 2026-05-07
Sarpsborg 08 FF47¢Fredrikstad FK29¢Draw (Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Fredrikstad FK)26¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.