Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay
Leader sits at 66% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 21%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Uruguay
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
21¢
Draw (Saudi Arabia vs. Urugu
Spread
45pp
contested
24h volume
$482
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 15, 2026
37 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Uruguay will defeat Saudi Arabia in an upcoming match. The 64% likelihood for Uruguay reflects their historical strength as a two-time World Cup winner with established squad depth, while Saudi Arabia represents a less predictable challenger. Key drivers of the probability include recent team performance records, head-to-head history, and squad composition at match time. The outcome will be determined by the fixture itself, with the specific match date and conditions directly influencing the teams' tactical approaches and player availability. Market pricing may shift significantly based on team news, injury reports, or confirmed lineups released closer to kickoff.
- ›Uruguay's historical ranking and recent FIFA standings versus Saudi Arabia's current competitive level
- ›Availability and fitness status of key players for both squads, particularly star performers
- ›Head-to-head historical match results and goal differential between the two nations
- ›Match venue, altitude, and climate conditions that may favor one team's playing style
- ›Recent tournament performance and form of both teams in the weeks leading up to the fixture
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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