Saudi Professional League
Leader sits at 52% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 26%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Winner: Al-Nassr
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
26¢
Winner: Al-Hilal
Spread
26pp
contested
24h volume
$12
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 4, 2026
26 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Saudi Professional League: Winner: Al
Analysis
This 50% probability indicates that Al-Hilal has roughly even odds of winning the Saudi Professional League title compared to other contenders. The market reflects competing narratives: Al-Hilal's established strength and recent dominance in the league support their favorability, while other elite clubs like Al-Nassr and Al Ahli continue investing heavily in star players and remain competitive threats. The 67% probability that Mohamed Salah joins the Saudi Pro League suggests potential roster changes across clubs could reshape competitive balance. The league season structure and remaining fixture schedule will determine whether Al-Hilal maintains their edge or if title challengers close the gap. Market liquidity is minimal (only one contract trading actively today), meaning probabilities could shift meaningfully with new player transfers, injuries, or strong performance runs down the stretch. The outcome will be resolved at the official end of the 2025-26 SPL season.
- ›Al-Hilal's historical dominance in SPL (multiple recent titles) vs. current squad depth and fitness of top contenders
- ›Transfer activity and player acquisitions by Al-Nassr, Al Ahli, and other clubs that could alter competitive balance
- ›Mohamed Salah's contract status and likelihood of moving to Saudi Pro League, which would materially strengthen one club
- ›Remaining fixture schedule and head-to-head matchups between title contenders later in the season
- ›Trading volume of 49¢ contracts is zero over 24h, indicating low market confidence or consensus pricing
What moved the line
- May 6Winner: Al-Hilal↓19pp50→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Winner: Al-Nassr↑7pp44→51¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Winner: Al-Nassr↓6pp50→44¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Winner: Al-Hilal↓5pp31→26¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (52% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.