SC Corinthians Paulista vs. São Paulo FC - More Markets: SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5)
Leader sits at 23% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 9%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5)
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
9¢
SC Corinthians Paulista (-2.
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 10, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
SC Corinthians Paulista vs. São Paulo FC - More Markets: SC Corinthians Paulista
Analysis
This contract prices the probability that SC Corinthians Paulista will win by more than 1.5 goals against São Paulo FC at 19%, implying market participants consider it an unlikely but non-negligible outcome. The low probability reflects that a two-goal margin is a significant threshold in football; most direct head-to-head matches between rivals produce closer results or victories by single goals. The current pricing depends on recent form disparities between the clubs, available team lineups, and historical performance in this fixture. Resolution depends on the scheduled match outcome whenever it is contested; any shift in injury status or team momentum leading up to kickoff could materially adjust expectations. The minimal trading volume suggests limited market depth on these specific contracts, meaning prices may not fully reflect all available information about the teams' current states.
- ›Current form of both squads: win/loss/draw records in recent matches strongly influence spread likelihood
- ›Head-to-head historical patterns: whether this fixture typically produces decisive margins or closer contests
- ›Team absences: key injuries or suspensions that reduce either squad's attacking or defensive capability
- ›Venue and condition: home advantage and pitch conditions can affect goal-scoring patterns
- ›Market depth: low 24h trading volume ($0) suggests the price may not reflect recent developments or sharp assessment
What moved the line
- May 8SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5)↓3pp22→19¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (23% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.