SC Corinthians Paulista vs. São Paulo FC - More Markets: São Paulo FC (-1.5)
Leader sits at 10% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
São Paulo FC (-1.5)
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
São Paulo FC (-2.5)
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$53
thin orderbook
Closes
May 10, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
SC Corinthians Paulista vs. São Paulo FC - More Markets: São Paulo FC
Analysis
This market reflects an 11% probability that São Paulo FC will win by at least 1.5 goals against SC Corinthians Paulista in an upcoming match. The low probability suggests markets expect either a Corinthians victory or a narrower São Paulo margin of victory. Relevant factors include recent form, head-to-head records, team injuries, and home-field advantage. Resolution depends on the final score when the match concludes. Low trading volume ($0 in 24h) indicates minimal market activity, which may limit price precision and liquidity. The probability could shift based on team news, lineup confirmations, or weather conditions closer to kickoff. Analysts tracking this outcome would compare current odds against their own assessment of each team's likelihood of winning by 1.5+ goals, accounting for recent performance trends and historical matchup data.
- ›Recent form and win-loss records of both teams over the last 10 matches
- ›Head-to-head historical results between Corinthians and São Paulo in similar competition contexts
- ›Confirmed injuries, suspensions, or roster changes that materially affect either team's attacking or defensive capability
- ›Home or neutral venue status and how it correlates with team performance in this rivalry
- ›Betting market consensus on match winner vs. this specific -1.5 spread, indicating whether the low probability reflects expectation of a close result or Corinthians dominance
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (10% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.