Scotland vs. Morocco
Leader sits at 46% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 31%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Morocco
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
31¢
Draw (Scotland vs. Morocco)
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 19, 2026
41 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Scotland vs. Morocco
Analysis
Morocco is priced as the slight favorite to beat Scotland, with a 49% implied probability compared to Scotland's 31%. This reflects trading activity across three outcome contracts with modest volume. The pricing suggests traders view Morocco as marginally more likely to win, though the market shows material uncertainty given the 18-percentage-point gap between the two leading outcomes. Key drivers include each team's recent form, head-to-head historical matchup results, and squad strength assessments. The primary resolution event is the scheduled match between these teams, which will determine the actual outcome and settle all associated contracts. Current trading volume remains relatively light, suggesting the market may reprice as the match date approaches and additional information becomes available.
- ›Morocco is priced 18 percentage points higher than Scotland, indicating modest rather than substantial confidence in a Morocco victory
- ›Only $10 in 24-hour volume on the Scotland vs. Morocco contract suggests thin liquidity and potential for repricing
- ›The third outcome in this market (neither Scotland nor Morocco advancing or other specified result) captures 20% of implied probability, indicating meaningful uncertainty about match structure or definition
- ›Brazil is priced much higher (60¢) in its matchup, suggesting relative team strength assessments may be influencing Scotland-Morocco pricing
- ›No specific match date is provided in available data, making the timeline to resolution unclear and potentially affecting trader positioning
What moved the line
- May 6Morocco↓3pp50→47¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.