SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...
Leader sits at 14% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
July 31
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
13¢
December 31
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$129
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by
Analysis
This probability reflects the current market expectation that the Supreme Court will accept a sports event contract case by a specific deadline. At 27%, the market suggests this outcome is considered unlikely but plausible. The probability is primarily driven by the number of relevant sports contract disputes currently in lower courts and the Supreme Court's historical willingness to grant certiorari on commercial law matters. Upward pressure could come from a high-profile appellate ruling that raises the case's national significance or splits circuit court precedent, while downward pressure would result from cases being settled, dismissed, or the Court declining to hear petitions. The key catalyst is the Supreme Court's monthly petition conference schedule, where justices decide which cases to accept. The actual resolution depends on whether a qualifying case receives the required four votes for certiorari by the specified deadline.
- ›The number of sports contract cases currently pending in federal appellate courts and their likelihood of reaching Supreme Court petition stage by the deadline
- ›The Supreme Court's historical grant rate for commercial law and contract disputes, typically 1-2% of petitions
- ›Whether any pending case develops a circuit split or involves constitutional questions that would increase certiorari appeal
- ›The specific definition and scope of 'sports event contract case' in the question's terms, which determines which cases qualify
- ›Recent trends in sports litigation and whether new disputes have emerged that would generate petitions matching the question's criteria
What moved the line
- May 7December 31↓7pp27→20¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (14% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.