Seattle Reign FC vs. Washington Spirit
Leader sits at 55% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 25%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Washington Spirit
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
25¢
Draw (Seattle Reign FC vs. W
Spread
30pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 10, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Seattle Reign FC vs. Washington Spirit
Seattle Reign FC vs. Washington Spirit: Seattle Reign FC
0x106d64…3fc5
Seattle Reign FC vs. Washington Spirit: Washington Spirit
0x78bfec…b079
Seattle Reign FC vs. Washington Spirit: Draw (Seattle Reign FC vs. Washington Spirit)
0x6446da…f766
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectation that Seattle Reign FC will win an upcoming match against Washington Spirit, with a 40% chance assigned to Seattle victory compared to 32% for Washington and 30% for a draw. The current pricing suggests relatively even odds between the two outcomes, with Seattle holding a slight edge. The matchup outcome depends on team form, injury status, head-to-head history, and home-field advantage at the time of play. The primary catalyst will be kickoff on the scheduled match date, which will provide definitive resolution. Movement in these probabilities before the match would likely reflect recent team performance, lineup changes, or updated injury reports that shift expectations about either team's ability to control play and create scoring opportunities.
- ›Seattle's current win-loss-draw record and goal differential in the 2026 NWSL season relative to Washington Spirit's record
- ›Injury or roster availability status for key offensive or defensive players on either team as of the match date
- ›Home vs. away designation and historical performance in that venue for both teams in 2026
- ›Head-to-head results between these teams in prior seasons and any recent competitive patterns
- ›Weather conditions and field surface conditions at kickoff that could affect team strategy and play style
What moved the line
- May 8Seattle Reign FC↓20pp41→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Draw (Seattle Reign FC vs. Washington Spirit)↓6pp32→26¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.