SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 3 outcomes3 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 6 min agoCloses May 10, 2026 · 1d

Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC

Leader sits at 56% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 23%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

56%

Seattle Sounders FC

runner-up 23¢leader 56¢

Outcomes

3

winner-take-all

Runner-up

23¢

Draw (Seattle Sounders FC vs

Spread

33pp

contested

24h volume

$607

thin orderbook

Closes

May 10, 2026

1 days

Venue

Polymarket

3 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodaySeattle Sounders FC: 56% on 2026-05-07Draw (Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC): 25% on 2026-05-08San Diego FC: 22% on 2026-05-07
Seattle Sounders FC56¢Draw (Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC)25¢San Diego FC22¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

Markets are pricing Seattle Sounders FC as favored to win this match at 55%, with a draw at 25% and San Diego FC at 21%. This suggests traders view Seattle as more likely to secure three points, though the distribution indicates meaningful uncertainty. The outcome will depend on recent team form, head-to-head records, and key player availability. Injuries, tactical matchups, and home-field advantage typically drive MLS match probabilities. The resolution date—when the match concludes—will determine which outcome occurs, making current positioning reflect pre-match conditions rather than any interim data. Trading volume is currently inactive across all three contracts.

  • Seattle's current position in the MLS standings and recent win-loss record versus San Diego's recent form
  • Availability of key players for both teams and any confirmed injuries or suspensions entering the match
  • Historical head-to-head results between the two clubs in recent seasons
  • Home or away designation and venue conditions that typically favor one team
  • Current goal differential and defensive/offensive ranking metrics for both squads in the 2026 season

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.