Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC
Leader sits at 56% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 23%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Seattle Sounders FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
23¢
Draw (Seattle Sounders FC vs
Spread
33pp
contested
24h volume
$607
thin orderbook
Closes
May 10, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC
Analysis
Markets are pricing Seattle Sounders FC as favored to win this match at 55%, with a draw at 25% and San Diego FC at 21%. This suggests traders view Seattle as more likely to secure three points, though the distribution indicates meaningful uncertainty. The outcome will depend on recent team form, head-to-head records, and key player availability. Injuries, tactical matchups, and home-field advantage typically drive MLS match probabilities. The resolution date—when the match concludes—will determine which outcome occurs, making current positioning reflect pre-match conditions rather than any interim data. Trading volume is currently inactive across all three contracts.
- ›Seattle's current position in the MLS standings and recent win-loss record versus San Diego's recent form
- ›Availability of key players for both teams and any confirmed injuries or suspensions entering the match
- ›Historical head-to-head results between the two clubs in recent seasons
- ›Home or away designation and venue conditions that typically favor one team
- ›Current goal differential and defensive/offensive ranking metrics for both squads in the 2026 season
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.