SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 8 outcomes8 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 6 min agoCloses May 10, 2026 · 1d

Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC - More Markets

Leader sits at 83% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 61%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

83%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 61¢leader 83¢

Outcomes

8

winner-take-all

Runner-up

61¢

O/U 2.5

Spread

22pp

contested

24h volume

$129

thin orderbook

Closes

May 10, 2026

1 days

Venue

Polymarket

8 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 81% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 1.5: 81% on 2026-05-08O/U 2.5: 58% on 2026-05-07Both Teams to Score: 59% (3 days, 3 points)Both Teams to Score: 59% on 2026-05-08
O/U 1.581¢O/U 2.558¢Both Teams to Score59¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

The 58% probability indicates that market participants view both teams scoring as more likely than not in this match. This reflects the relative attacking capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities of both Seattle Sounders FC and San Diego FC. The probability would move higher if either team's recent form shows increased goal-scoring efficiency or defensive lapses, and would shift lower if defensive solidity or injury concerns to key attacking players emerge. The match outcome will be determined on the scheduled game date, which will provide definitive resolution of whether both teams successfully score.

  • Recent goal differential and shot conversion rates for both teams in league play
  • Availability of key offensive and defensive players, particularly strikers and goalkeepers
  • Home/away splits for each team, as field advantage correlates with both attacking output and defensive stability
  • Head-to-head historical scoring patterns between these specific opponents in prior meetings
  • Weather conditions and pitch conditions on match day, which can materially affect pace of play and goal-scoring likelihood

What moved the line

  • May 7Seattle Sounders FC (-2.5)3pp1417¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.