Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC - More Markets
Leader sits at 83% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 61%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
61¢
O/U 2.5
Spread
22pp
contested
24h volume
$129
thin orderbook
Closes
May 10, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC - More Markets
Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC - More Markets: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)
0xcff0a2…9f42
Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x2affa0…1dba
Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xdc1c83…3409
Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x505719…346a
Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xf62302…6188
Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC - More Markets: Seattle Sounders FC (-2.5)
0xd1f93b…269e
Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x85ef2d…83b3
Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC - More Markets: San Diego FC (-1.5)
0xca62fb…bfde
Analysis
The 58% probability indicates that market participants view both teams scoring as more likely than not in this match. This reflects the relative attacking capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities of both Seattle Sounders FC and San Diego FC. The probability would move higher if either team's recent form shows increased goal-scoring efficiency or defensive lapses, and would shift lower if defensive solidity or injury concerns to key attacking players emerge. The match outcome will be determined on the scheduled game date, which will provide definitive resolution of whether both teams successfully score.
- ›Recent goal differential and shot conversion rates for both teams in league play
- ›Availability of key offensive and defensive players, particularly strikers and goalkeepers
- ›Home/away splits for each team, as field advantage correlates with both attacking output and defensive stability
- ›Head-to-head historical scoring patterns between these specific opponents in prior meetings
- ›Weather conditions and pitch conditions on match day, which can materially affect pace of play and goal-scoring likelihood
What moved the line
- May 7Seattle Sounders FC (-2.5)↑3pp14→17¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.