Serie A
Leader sits at 49% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Winner: Varese
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
49¢
Winner: Aquila Basket Trento
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 20, 2026
225 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Serie A: Winner
Serie A: Winner: Varese
0x472ab2…b293
Serie A: Winner: Virtus Bologna
0x35dfd2…f641
Serie A: Winner: Olimpia Milano
0x1d98c0…f568
Serie A: Winner: Pallacanestro Reggiana
0xc6032a…9619
Serie A: Winner: Germani Brescia
0xac46d7…6cb0
Serie A: Winner: Umana Reyer Venezia
0xac783d…bd23
Serie A: Winner: Pallacanestro Trieste
0x8dadf3…6c53
Serie A: Winner: Tortona
0x966d98…4891
Serie A: Winner: Aquila Basket Trento
0x183248…7b33
Analysis
This 47% probability reflects market expectations about the 2026 NBA playoffs, with significant trading volume across first and second-round series matchups. The current level suggests roughly even odds for the outcomes being priced. Trading data shows sharp disagreement on specific series: Detroit is heavily favored over Orlando at 74¢ despite Orlando trading at 26¢ in the inverse, indicating active debate about first-round results. The probability will shift based on playoff performance, injuries to key players, and which teams advance through each round. The upcoming NBA Finals in June 2026 will ultimately resolve most of these contracts, though individual series outcomes determine them before then. Current volume concentrations suggest markets are still pricing in uncertainty about seeding and matchups that remain somewhat fluid.
- ›Detroit trades at 74¢ to beat Orlando while Orlando trades at 26¢ in the inverse contract, suggesting potential mispricing or different market participant expectations
- ›Los Angeles Lakers priced at only 8¢ to beat Oklahoma City in a second-round series, reflecting strong market confidence in Oklahoma City's advancement and performance
- ›Minnesota at 11¢ against San Antonio indicates asymmetric expectations about their respective paths through the bracket
- ›High trading volumes on first-round contracts ($1.3M+ in 24h) versus lower volumes on second-round matchups suggests less certainty about which teams will actually meet later
- ›Orlando and Toronto both trading around 26-27¢ in their respective first-round matchups creates the baseline uncertainty driving the aggregate 47% probability
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.