Serie A: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor)
Leader sits at 53% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 48%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Lecce
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
48¢
17th Place (Relegation Survi
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$14
thin orderbook
Closes
May 31, 2026
22 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Serie A: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor)
Serie A: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Genoa
0xbcbae0…5c23
Serie A: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Cremonese
0xb5a9af…5b9b
Serie A: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Lecce
0x195645…e99e
Serie A: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Fiorentina
0x50e3a6…2fa3
Serie A: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Cagliari
0xdccfa2…c5d8
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Lecce will finish 17th in Serie A during the 2025-26 season, barely avoiding relegation to Serie B. The 51% probability indicates near-parity between Lecce and its main competitor (at 48%), meaning outcome odds are tight but slightly favor the Salento club. Lecce's positioning is driven by their current league standing, recent form relative to rivals in the relegation zone, and the remaining fixture list. The market will sharpen considerably as the season approaches its conclusion in late May 2026, when final-day results determine which teams drop to the second division. Key drivers include Lecce's head-to-head records against other bottom-half teams, injury status of key players, managerial stability, and performance consistency over the final stretch of matches. Resolution occurs when the season ends and final Serie A standings become official.
- ›Lecce's current points total and goal differential compared to other bottom-3 contenders as of early May 2026
- ›Remaining fixtures: strength of schedule for Lecce versus competing clubs vying for 17th place
- ›Head-to-head outcomes in recent direct matchups between Lecce and other relegation-threatened teams
- ›Availability of Lecce's key players due to injury, suspension, or transfer activity in the final weeks
- ›Manager continuity and tactical adjustments made to Lecce's approach in the run-in phase
What moved the line
- May 317th Place (Relegation Survivor): Lecce↓4pp52→48¢ · Polymarket
- May 217th Place (Relegation Survivor): Lecce↑3pp49→52¢ · Polymarket
- May 617th Place (Relegation Survivor): Lecce↑3pp48→51¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.