Serie A - Top Goalscorer
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
97%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$159
1 contracts
Closes
May 28, 2026
19 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Serie A - Top Goalscorer : Lautaro Martinez
Serie A - Top Goalscorer : Lautaro Martinez
0x13b625…7b1c
Analysis
This market assigns a 97% probability to a specific outcome for Serie A's top goalscorer during the 2025-26 season. The extremely high probability suggests market participants have identified a heavily favored contender, likely based on recent performance metrics, playing time, and team positioning. The main drivers of this confidence level would be the leader's goal tally relative to competitors and their injury status. As the season progresses toward its conclusion, the resolution depends on remaining match fixtures and whether competitors close the gap or the favorite maintains their scoring lead. The catalyst for significant probability shifts would be major injuries to the frontrunner or an unexpected surge in goal-scoring from rivals during the final matches of the season.
- ›Current goal differential between the market favorite and nearest competitors in Serie A through May 2026
- ›Injury status and available playing time for both the leading scorer and their main challengers for the remainder of the season
- ›Remaining fixture schedule and opponent quality for teams of top scorers
- ›Historical volatility in Serie A top scorer races and whether 97% reflects historical accuracy of such predictions
- ›24-hour trading volume ($1,373 peak shown across comparable markets) indicating whether sufficient liquidity exists to support the probability consensus
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.