Serie A - Which Clubs Get Relegated
Leader sits at 59% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 38%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Cremonese
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
38¢
Cagliari
Spread
21pp
contested
24h volume
$17
thin orderbook
Closes
May 28, 2026
19 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Serie A - Which Clubs Get Relegated
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that a specific set of clubs will be relegated from their respective European top divisions by season's end. At 59%, the leading outcome reflects market expectations about which teams face the highest combined relegation risk. The current level is driven by mid-table positioning and recent form among several clubs: West Ham (35¢), Tottenham (32¢), and Leeds (19¢) dominate EPL relegation pricing, while Sevilla (19¢) represents La Liga relegation risk. Factors pushing this probability up or down include upcoming fixture difficulty, injury status of key players, managerial changes, and point differentials between endangered clubs and safety. The primary resolution catalyst is the final day of domestic league play, typically occurring in late May, when final table positions determine which clubs drop to lower divisions.
- ›West Ham's 35¢ contract price reflects their precarious league position with multiple remaining fixtures that will determine safety versus relegation
- ›Tottenham's surprisingly high 32¢ price indicates market concern about potential late-season collapse despite traditional competitive status
- ›Leeds at 19¢ suggests lower but material relegation risk given their recent performance trajectory and remaining schedule difficulty
- ›Sevilla's inclusion signals La Liga relegation uncertainty extending beyond typical favorites, widening the pool of vulnerable clubs
- ›Volume concentration in EPL contracts ($1864-$1477 daily) versus La Liga ($1301) shows where market participants perceive greatest relegation uncertainty
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.