Milan vs Juventus
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−1pp
23h ago
24h volume
$0
19 contracts
Closes
May 25, 2026
17 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Napoli vs Bologna: First Half Winner
Cluster 2
Milan vs Atalanta: First Half Winner
Cluster 3
Parma Calcio vs Roma: First Half Winner
Cluster 4
Fiorentina vs Genoa: First Half Winner
Cluster 5
Cremonese vs Pisa: First Half Winner
Cluster 6
Hellas Verona vs Como: First Half Winner
Cluster 7
Lecce vs Juventus: First Half Winner
Lecce vs Juventus: First Half Winner?: Lecce
KXSERIEA1H-26MAY09LECJUV-LEC
Analysis
This 31% probability represents the likelihood that Milan defeats Juventus in their upcoming match. The assessment reflects current form, head-to-head dynamics, and squad availability between two of Italy's top clubs. Milan's probability sits below even odds, suggesting market participants view Juventus as slightly favored or expect a competitive encounter with multiple possible outcomes. The probability could shift based on team news regarding injuries or tactical changes announced before kickoff, and would be definitively resolved once the match concludes. Recent Serie A performance, defensive strength, and offensive efficiency typically influence such matchups, with the final result depending on in-match execution rather than pre-game indicators alone.
- ›Milan's recent win-loss record and goal differential compared to Juventus in the current Serie A season
- ›Availability of key players for each team, particularly any injuries announced in the 48 hours before the match
- ›Historical head-to-head conversion rates when these teams meet, particularly Milan's success rate at home versus Juventus's defensive record away
- ›Current league position and momentum, measured by points earned in the last 5 matches for each side
- ›Tactical deployment patterns from recent matches, including each team's tendency toward attacking versus defensive setups
What moved the line
- May 6First Half Winner?: Como↑25pp22→47¢ · Kalshi
- May 6First Half Winner?: Tie↑22pp19→41¢ · Kalshi
- May 6First Half Winner?: Tie↑20pp17→37¢ · Kalshi
- May 6First Half Winner?: Cremonese↑18pp18→36¢ · Kalshi
- May 6First Half Winner?: Roma↑16pp22→38¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.