Hellas Verona vs Lecce Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 17 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
35%
17 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
17 contracts
Closes
May 25, 2026
17 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Lecce vs Juventus Winner” vs “Parma Calcio vs Roma Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Lecce vs Juventus Winner
Cluster 2
Parma Calcio vs Roma Winner
Cluster 3
Milan vs Atalanta Winner
Cluster 4
Napoli vs Bologna Winner
Cluster 5
Cremonese vs Pisa Winner
Cluster 6
Hellas Verona vs Como Winner
Cluster 7
Fiorentina vs Genoa Winner
Fiorentina vs Genoa Winner?: Fiorentina
KXSERIEAGAME-26MAY10FIOGEN-FIO
What moved the line
- May 7Roma↑15pp46→61¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Como↑6pp63→69¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Parma Calcio↓5pp19→14¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Cremonese↑4pp53→57¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Tie↓4pp25→21¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.