Atalanta at Cagliari
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 41% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
41%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$410
20 contracts
Closes
May 25, 2026
17 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 29% of their title tokens — “Roma at Parma Calcio: Totals: Over” vs “Bologna at Napoli: Totals: Over”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Roma at Parma Calcio: Totals: Over
Roma at Parma Calcio: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
KXSERIEATOTAL-26MAY10PARROM-3
Roma at Parma Calcio: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXSERIEATOTAL-26MAY10PARROM-4
Roma at Parma Calcio: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXSERIEATOTAL-26MAY10PARROM-2
Roma at Parma Calcio: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXSERIEATOTAL-26MAY10PARROM-1
Cluster 2
Bologna at Napoli: Totals: Over
Bologna at Napoli: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXSERIEATOTAL-26MAY11NAPBFC-2
Bologna at Napoli: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXSERIEATOTAL-26MAY11NAPBFC-4
Bologna at Napoli: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
KXSERIEATOTAL-26MAY11NAPBFC-3
Bologna at Napoli: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXSERIEATOTAL-26MAY11NAPBFC-1
Cluster 3
Atalanta at Milan: Totals: Over
Atalanta at Milan: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXSERIEATOTAL-26MAY10ACMATA-1
Atalanta at Milan: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXSERIEATOTAL-26MAY10ACMATA-4
Atalanta at Milan: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
KXSERIEATOTAL-26MAY10ACMATA-3
Atalanta at Milan: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXSERIEATOTAL-26MAY10ACMATA-2
Cluster 4
Juventus at Lecce: Totals: Over
Cluster 5
Inter at Lazio: Totals: Over
Cluster 6
Genoa at Fiorentina: Totals: Over
Cluster 7
Pisa at Cremonese: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
Pisa at Cremonese: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXSERIEATOTAL-26MAY10CREPIS-2
What moved the line
- May 3Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored↑22pp30→52¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored↑20pp33→53¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored↑17pp53→70¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored↑16pp53→69¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored↑11pp19→30¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.